04/30/08 @ 02:15:13 pm by archivesadmin
By: William Mellon
I remember the first time I watched the Kentucky Derby, and I didn’t even realize I was watching history. It was 1977, and the eventual winner, Seattle Slew, would go on to become the first Triple Crown-winner since Secretariat in 1973. The very next year, Affirmed would duplicate the feat, making him the 11th horse to accomplish such a task.
In more than 125 years of racing, less than a dozen horses have managed to win the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes—collectively known as the Triple Crown—in the same year. The races themselves are spaced six weeks apart, start annually on the first Saturday in May. To conquer all three is quite difficult for a myriad of reasons.
Firstly, these races are invitationals—not any horse can enter—so the competition is composed of only first-class 3-year-olds. Secondly, the length of time between races often affects the horses’ stamina (usually a horse may run one race every six weeks, not three in the same period). Thirdly, the travel between sites can initiate added stress on an already-skittish Thoroughbred. Finally, each race is a different length, which generally complicates the racing strategies of every entry.
With those obstacles in mind, ponder this: After the Kentucky Derby is run, there can only be one horse capable of vying for the Triple Crown—the Derby winner. That horse undoubtedly becomes the favorite for the other races. With the “luxury” of being the horse to beat comes more scrutiny, media attention and added pressure to finish first two more times. Not only that, but this horse is the target of the rest of the field, allowing trainers and jockeys to dissect strengths and weaknesses to deny the Triple Crown, thus making the final two races virtually one horse versus the rest of the field.
Furthermore, other contenders can skip the middle leg and train entirely for the final race—the longest race (one and a half miles) that any of them will have attempted—with the sole intention of upsetting history. For these reasons winning the Triple Crown is arguably the most difficult accomplishment in sports.
The first to realize such a feat was Sir Barton in 1919, nearly 45 years after the races began. The 1930s produced three winners—most notably, War Admiral (1937)—and the ‘40s gave us four winners, including the great Citation in 1948.
Some 25 years later, three more Triple Crown champions were crowned, including possibly the greatest horse ever to race, Secretariat. Since then we have seen several horses come one race shy of history, most recently Funny Cide in 2004; however, none were able to finish the mission. Perhaps parity has made its way into horse racing, but without a doubt, come May 3rd, 2008, millions of race fans will be wondering which horse will jump to the frontline of Triple Crown chatter.
Handicapping “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports”
It is most difficult to scientifically pick a winner in the Derby: The field contains as many as 20 quality horses, all of whom have the makeup to win or, in some cases, assist another horse’s “ride” from the same training stable. Many of these athletes haven’t faced off against one another, and, for most of them, this will be the largest audience they will race in front of, topping out at upwards of 155,000.
Obviously, the gate positions are important as well. No Derby winner has ever come from outside post 15—the further a horse is from the rail, the further he or she may have to run. Since there are so many participants, strategy is perhaps the most important element in running the mile and a quarter. More often than not, some of the favorites get trapped behind a group of horses and can never regain position to run for the roses. In the end it comes down to the jockey’s ability to ride through congestion and put his horse in the perfect position to win the race.
Horses to Watch
Considering all of these elements, here are some horses to watch for the 2008 Kentucky Derby:
Pyro: He blew away the field in the Louisiana Derby; looked uninterested in Keeneland.
Big Brown: A speed horse who took the Florida Derby; should be a favorite.
Colonel John: A West Coast hope, winner of the Santa Anita Derby; another safe choice.
Recapturetheglory: Another speed horse and winner of Illinois Derby.
Tale of Ekati: A stalker with heart, who showed his stuff winning the Wood Memorial.
Proud Spell (a filly): Considering last year’s Belmont, she may have something to say.
The Kentucky Derby has always been difficult to handicap, but that has never stopped me from making some predictions. This year is no different. In a great race, I have Big Brown and Recapturetheglory out front by the first pole, leading a pack of six through a blistering half-mile. I have Colonel John, Adriano and Pyro on the heels of the pace, shaping up for the stretch and shadowed by a group of horses, most notably Tale of Ekati.
By the last turn, the leaders begin to fade as the chasers mount their charge. On the straightaway a collection of horses spread five wide head for home. In a brilliant battle of wills, jockey Edgar Prado (aboard Tale of Ekati) overtakes the leader and wins by a head. Colonel John is a game second, with Proud Spell and Pyro finishing in the money.
(Author’s note: My father, Sheridan Mellon, was a professional jockey. From 1957 through 1964, he was one of the top apprentice riders in New York, compiling more than 300 winners during his career. He still holds the record for the biggest payoff in a major stakes race (nearly 60-to-1 odds; 1963 Delaware Handicap) beating a young Willie Shoemaker and his horse, Cicada, in a photo finish. I know horses thanks to him. At this article’s press time, the field and post positions for the 2008 Kentucky Derby had yet to be determined.)
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